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| Posted: 29 Jan 2012 11:51 PM PST  A study by the International Labour Organization (ILO) entitled, "Global Employment Trends 2012: Preventing a deeper jobs crisis" reported that the year 2012 will be faced with serious jobs challenge and widespread decent work deficits. The study further stated that after three years of continuous crisis conditions in global labour markets and against the prospect of a further deterioration of economic activity, there is a backlog of global unemployment of 200 million – an increase of 27 million since the start of the crisis. In addition, more than 400 million new jobs will be needed over the next decade to avoid a further increase in unemployment. Hence, to generate sustainable growth while maintaining social cohesion, the world must rise to the urgent challenge of creating 600 million productive jobs over the next decade, which would still leave 900 million workers living with their families below the US$ 2.00 a day poverty line, largely in developing countries. Given these labour market challenges, it appears that the outlook for global job creation will become worse. The baseline projection of the study also shows that no change in the global unemployment rate between now and 2016, remaining at 6 per cent of the global labour force. This would lead to an additional 3 million unemployed around the world in 2012, or a total of 200 million, rising to 206 million by 2016. If downside risks materialize and global growth falls to below 2 per cent in 2012, ILO estimated that global unemployment would rise more rapidly to more than 204 million in 2012, at least 4 million more than under the baseline scenario, with a further increase to 209 million in 2013, 6 million more than under the baseline scenario. Alternatively, under a more benign scenario – which assumes a quick resolution of the euro debt crisis – global unemployment would be around 1 million lower than under the baseline scenario in 2012, and 1.7 million lower in 2013. This would still not be sufficient to significantly alter the trajectory of the global unemployment rate, which is projected to remain stuck at around 6 per cent. Among the various sectors, the study predicts that the youth or those between 15–24 years of age will be most affected. In 2011, for instance, 74.8 million youth aged were unemployed, an increase of more than 4 million since 2007. The global youth unemployment rate, at 12.7 per cent, remains a full percentage point higher than the pre-crisis level. Globally, young people are nearly three times as likely as adults to be unemployed. In addition, an estimated 6.4 million young people have given up hope of finding a job and have dropped out of the labour market altogether. Even those young people who are employed are increasingly likely to find themselves in part-time employment and often on temporary contracts. In developing countries, youth are disproportionately among the working poor. As the number and share of unemployed youth is projected to remain essentially unchanged in 2012, and as the share of young people withdrawing from the labour market altogether continues to rise, on the present course there is little hope for a substantial improvement in near-term employment prospects for young people.   |
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